<Prediction bets on the South Korean presidential election listed on the decentralized betting platform “Polymarket.”>
The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has seen over $100 million in bets placed on the upcoming South Korean presidential election, with interest surging both locally and globally. The prediction market—powered by the USDC stablecoin—has become one of the platform’s top-traded topics, showcasing how blockchain and political speculation are converging.
On Polymarket, users wager on binary outcomes like “Will Lee Jae-myung win?” by buying “Yes” or “No” shares priced between $0 and $1 USDC, based on market odds. These predictions function like financial instruments, settling at $1 if correct. As of mid-May, Lee Jae-myung leads with a 90% win probability, with cumulative trades exceeding $120 million.
The platform’s appeal lies in its dynamic, market-driven reflections of public sentiment, which can shift faster than traditional polls. Real-time legal updates, like the postponement of Lee’s trial, have notably impacted his odds. For many users—especially Koreans with local political awareness—Polymarket is viewed as a more responsive and potentially profitable forecasting tool.
However, legality remains a major concern. South Korea prohibits unlicensed gambling, and participation in such platforms may result in criminal charges. While technically accessible, platforms like Polymarket fall into a legal gray zone, with authorities warning that users could face prosecution and seizure of profits.
Despite the risks, Korean crypto communities increasingly use Polymarket not only as a prediction tool but as a means to capitalize on domestic political knowledge. The ethical debate continues: are these markets a new form of incentivized polling or just a modern digital gambling den?
