In the olden days of our forebears, a wager was a simple thing. Garr would bet on the smooth side of a flat rock and Zakk would bet on the rough side. Zakk would then toss this rock into the air and let it land, securing the winnings (a second turkey leg, for example) for whoever called the side facing skyward. The terms of the deal were simple, and the math simpler still.
It’s all adorably quaint, considering what betting has evolved into. Decentralized, crypto-fueled prediction platforms such as Polymarket now allow for wagering over the outcome of any event, from the facetious (Will Jesus return in 2025?) to the deadly serious (Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire before July 1?). Much like a sportsbook, the odds move depending on the which way the betting volumes tilt. Unlike a sportsbook, one can sell their position at any time, thereby winning or losing before the event even takes place.
Limitless is another prediction market platform where bets range from the traditionally trivial (Will Indianapolis win its first NBA championship?) to the heavily consequential (Will Lee Jae-myung win the upcoming Korean presidential election?). The twist to this style of betting is that the actual outcome need not matter. One is not betting on who they hope will win the presidency. One isn’t even necessarily betting on who they think will win the presidency. With prediction platforms, one can choose to bet on how others bet.
Put another way, a profit can be turned by selling a position when the potential payoff is higher than what it was when the position was first bought. An investor with a keen nose for the oscillations of population-wide betting patterns can “win” a bet at the margins, before a single 3-pointer has been launched or a single ballot has been cast.
The most common bets within prediction markets are called “binary options,” though the possibilities are anything but binary. You want to bet on Kim Moon-soo? No problem. It’s possible to bet on the eventual winner and win, but it’s also possible to bet on the eventual loser and win. Indeed, it’s now possible to win turkey legs while Garr and Zakk’s flat stone is still spinning in the air. It’s a crypto world, and the olden ways are behind us.
